SacredFacts

Factoids

Being in New York in UN Week (when the General Assembly gathers) you pick up some interesting but random "facts". Not sure what to do with them, and can't guarantee am not guaranteeing their accuracy, but they're interesting nonetheless. Like:

- The number of people suffering from Alzheimers in the world will increase five fold by 2020. The last 15 year prediction greatly underestimated the increase.

- In 2003 there were no mobile phones in Afghanistan. Now there are six different services and 3 million subscribers.

- If the US, Russia, India and China were as efficient as Japan in terms of carbon emissions global greenhouse gases would be cut by 20%.

- The markets allocate more capital in one hour than all governments combined in a year.

- At current trends the entire polar ice-cap will have disappeared in 23 years.

- China's per capita GDP places it below the 100th country in the world. (Which I guess is another way of illustrating potential growth)

- A new coal powered energy plant opens every three days. In 20 years we will have produced more CO2 than during all previous human use of coal.

PS: And a great quote from Desmond Tutu: "Religion is like a knife. If you use it to cut bread it's good. If you use it to cut your neighbours arm off it's bad."

Scamming the Scammers

June's edition of The Atlantic (yes, I've only just got round to reading it) has a great piece by Ron Rosenbaum on the 419 Eaters. 419 scammers are those Nigerian princes, or widows of royalty, who write to you asking to use your bank account to launder some money in return for which you get a slice of riches beyond your imaginings. The name 419 comes from the number of the section of the Nigerian criminal code that applies to fraud. Apparently some people still fall for this. The 419 Eaters are a group who dedicate themselves to scamming the scammers, playing them along and turning the tables. So far so good and all power to them, but as Ron points out there is a tinge of racism around the site which undermines an otherwise laudable enterprise - particularly on the "Trophy Room" photographs of the scammers doing something ridiculous that they've been tricked into sending in...

Ron Rosenbaum is a really interesting writer. His "Travels with Doctor Death" following up the conspiricists in the US is a classic and great holiday read if you're looking for one.

The Doughty Street Experience

As Iain Dale was kind enough to show me around Doughty St TV a few weeks ago it would have been churlish of me not to accept his invitation to be interviewed on his show. However, as colleagues suggested to me in advance, the idea of a BBC executive submitting to the Doughty St experience brings to mind phrases like "Christians, Lions and Ritual Sacrifice". A view reinforced by some of the advance comments on his blog when he asked for questions ("Father Tim said...Ggrrrrrrr, I fecking hate the BBC. I must destroy them. Gnash. Gnash.")
Iain was, of course, thoroughly professional, courteous, quietly probing and an all round decent bloke.

His colleague Tim Montgomerie was less impressed with my answer to his emailed question about Robin Atiken's criticisms of the BBC. Actually, he's right, my response was inadequate. I was ready, if needs be, to talk about the circularity of the "unconscious bias" allegation (where any defence is dismissed with "see, you dont recognise it, guilty as charged"!) or with the question of drawing general conclusions from singular examples, the specifics of some of Robin's other allegations or, indeed, my own view about some of the deficiencies in the BBC's journalism and what they amount to. However, I was unaware we had never interviewed Robin about his views on air and, being now outside the UK commissioning circle, unaware of any reasons why. (None I can think of beyond whether the accusations are sufficiently interesting to those not already convinced of the BBC's bias..)

Reaction on Iain's blog was perceptive ("Richard Sambrook - he's got awfully old and bald and fat....") True, I'm 50, beyond "thinning" and an outrageous 34" waist. But it went on to suggest I must be unemployable which I'm happy to say I'm not (3 or 4 job offers a year on average, but none as interesting as what I currently do.)

Anyway, I enjoyed it. I think the Doughty St model, regardless of your or their politics, is really interesting and the way the content is sliced, diced and distributed across blogs and sites gives it a halo beyond its immediate viewership. It's genuinely innovative and points the way for a much wider range of views and voices, unregulated and diverse. Must be a good thing. However, you do need a generous benefactor - no money to be made yet - and their staffing is commendably lean, but perhaps a little too much so. I was left sitting in the green room for ten minutes after we should have been on air, unknown to Iain who assumed I had stood them up.

And personally, whatever anyone makes of the interview, I believe it's right that institutions like the BBC drop their defensiveness a little and go and talk with their critics. We need to do more of it.

News War

Lowell Bergman's new Frontline Documentary series for PBS on American Journalism is available to watch streamed online. The billing:

In a four-hour special, News War, FRONTLINE examines the political, cultural, legal, and economic forces challenging the news media today and how the press has reacted in turn. Through interviews with key figures in print, broadcast and electronic media over the past four decades -- and with unequaled, behind-the-scenes access to some of today's most important news organizations, FRONTLINE traces the recent history of American journalism, from the Nixon administration's attacks on the media to the post-Watergate popularity of the press, to the new challenges presented by the war on terror and other global forces now changing -- and challenging -- the role of the press in our society.

The site also offers transcripts of all the series interviews, a full script of the series, a teachers pack on the issues raised, journalist guidelines and a chance to offer comments about the programme. It's a great accompaniment. There's a Q&A between the producer, Raney Aronson, and readers of the Washington Post here.

I was invited to the launch in Washington this week, but couldn't make it. Knowing Lowell's work, I have no doubt it'll be a terrific watch when I can find four spare hours...I'll be making time very soon.

RFK

I'm looking forward to the new film Bobby - about the day Robert Kennedy was assassinated. (Due for UK release Jan 26th).

I'm an RFK fan - I think he was the greater loss of the two brothers. The Kennedy charisma lives on and interestingly in this country appears to cross the political divide. I know politicians of all three main parties who are Kennedy "fans". The imperfections of course add to their appeal. The parallels between the sixties and this decade (a divisive war, major social change, the shadow of a global threat) makes it timely to revive the myths.

I recommend Evan Thomas's biography
The recordings of his speeches.

Try this famous passage:
"The gross national product includes air pollution and advertising for cigarettes, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors, and jails for the people who break them.

"The gross national product includes the destruction of the redwoods and the death of Lake Superior. It grows with the production of napalm and missiles with nuclear warheads....
"And if the gross national product includes all this, there is much that it does not comprehend. It does not allow for the health of our families, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It is indifferent to the decency of our factories and the safety of streets alike. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials....
"The gross national product measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to country. It measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile"

Great political rhetoric, whether you agree with the sentiment or not...

Offset that flight....

So where were we? I survived a week on the slopes at (reasonably) high speed. However, everywhere I turned the debate about air travel, and its effect on the environment, seemed to be raging.

In the EasyJet in-flight magazine, CEO Andy Harrison was keen to address the Stern Report and dispel some myths: in built simplicity and a low-cost approach makes them more efficient than others he says; they therefore balance economic development and impact on the environment; they support EU emission trading; taxation is not the answer ("giving the government money does not improve the environment") but reform of state subsidised airlines might help. And, he says, aviation accounts for just 1.6% of global greenhouse gases anyway. Remember that figure.

Then in The Guardian, George Monbiot gets stuck in as usual: Uk airplane emmissions by 2050 will account for 49% of the governments CO2 reduction targets. And planes other greenhouse gases create a global warming effect 2.7 times greater than Carbon dioxide alone. Aviation, he says, will account for between 91% and 258% of the greenhouse gases the UK will be permitted to produce in 2050 (Are you following these figures?) and, he says, emission trading won't work - the answer in his view is to limit airports and travel.

Over in the Telegraph, Andrew Pearce doesn't bother too much with the figures. He just berates environment minister Ian Pearson for suggesting we shouldn't indulge in cheap flights and basically argues that you can't ignore the market. Quite where that leaves the planet, he doesn't say.

Meanwhile in Newsweek, Richard Branson says investment in science can make the skies green - which is why he's supporting a $3billion project for biofuel production. The Prime Minister, having bought offsets for his holiday flights, seems to agree Science will be the answer.

As I reflected on all this over a Chocolat Chaud at 1600m, I also read that it was the warmest alpine winter for 1300 years, that if I had travelled by train to the Alps I would have been responsible for 5.7g of CO2 per kilometer as opposed to 180g by plane, but that at least the resort I was in runs its lifts on hydroelectricity. And although over the border the upmarket Swiss resort of Zermatt proudly declares itself to be car-free, there is a very busy heliport bringing in rich skiers.

So what to make of it all? A classic battle of mis-matching statistics - figures which don't relate to each other and which are cherry picked and spun to suit commercial or political (including environmental) interest. It leaves the layman confused rather than illuminated. In such circumstances the only thing you can be really sure of is that the stakes are higher than Mont Blanc and the debate has a long way to run.

And that hot air rises.

Here we go

First prediction for 2007: the inter-relationship of energy supply, security and the environment will become one of the key issues of the year and surface from the undercurrents. The German complaints about Russia turning down supplies are one example, nicely pulled together via the new and innovative aggregator Daylife (extensively blogged elsewhere).

"Neo Culpa"

Vanity Fair - which has become firmly anti-Republican under Graydon Carter - has a fascinating piece this month from David Rose on the neo-Cons disavowing the Bush administration. Richard Perle, David Frum, Kenneth Adelman and others have been saying for a while that it was the poor planning and implementation which have led to the current situation. Part of the article was released online before the mid-terms.
They all agree that to pull out before political stability is established - which looks increasingly likely - would have dark consequences beyond Iraq itself or US Foreign policy. As Frank Gaffney puts it:

"It's not a perfect parallel here, but I would say it would approximate to losing the Battle of Britain in World War II," he says. "Our enemies will be emboldened and will re-double their efforts. Our friends will be demoralized and disassociate themselves from us. The delusion is to think that the war is confined to Iraq, and that America can walk away. Failure in Iraq would be a huge strategic defeat."

How far we've come from the heady days of 2002 when at a private dinner in London I heard a neo-con outline how democracy would swiftly be brought to Iraq which would then set an example for the rest of the region and unlock peace throughout the middle east. Or from the briefings I went to in January 2003 which outlined the "cakewalk" theory and told how the US forces expected to be greeted as liberators by the people of Iraq.

But, as David Rose concludes, although the neo-cons were wrong about that, they may be right about the consequences of early withdrawal. Which is why the briefings before and after the ISG report were all about "a new start" and establishing a "new legitimacy" for staying in Iraq.

Sunday reading

The latest edition of the New York Review of Books has three excellent pieces:

Mark Danner on Iraq: The war of imagination, reviewing books by Bob Woodward, Ron Suskind and James Risen. It builds on his analysis of the Downing St memos last year and he promises more to come.

(John Naughton's blogged the same piece here)

Then Neal Ascherson reviews David Remnick's book, Reporting (previously blogged). Ascherson finds a theme:

Most of the profiles in this anthology, though not all, are about leaders—in the United States, Britain, Israel, Palestine, and elsewhere—who fight only to survive. They are skilled and impressive, satisfied that they have "done their best," but they do not risk plunging into those dark places where disasters but also breakthroughs are found. As a result, nothing essential changes and impacted problems remain to poison future generations.

And finally, Jonathan Freedland reviews a clutch of biographies of Ariel Sharon and reconstructs his career and impact on the Middle East. Not least, tracking Sharon's journey towards compromise. As he told the Likud Central Committee a few months before his stroke:

"We cannot maintain a Jewish democratic state while holding on to all the land of Israel. If we demand the whole dream we may end up with nothing at all. That is where the extreme path leads."

A remarkable statement, as Freedland puts it, for it was Ariel Sharon who had led Israel down that path for nearly four decades.

The Power of Ideas

Thanks to Dan Hill for pointing me to the site of Errol Morris, US documentary maker. There I found this transcript of a discussion between him and British documentary maker Adam Curtis.
Morris, of course, directed The Fog of War - an extended interview with former US Secretary of Defence Robert McNamara. Curtis directed the series, The Power of Nightmares. There's common ground - both deal with the danger of false ideas becoming accepted wisdom. In The Fog of War, McNamara talks about the Tonkin Gulf incident where they wrongly thought US ships were under attack and it led to the escalation of the Vietnam war. As McNamara says in the film:

'We were wrong, but we had in our minds a mindset that led to that action and it carried such heavy costs. ...We see incorrectly or we see only half the story at times. We see what we want to believe. Belief and seeing — they are both often wrong.”

In Power of Nightmares, Curtis suggests we have misunderstood the nature of the modern terrorist threat:

“Look, you do face a terrorist threat, as is obvious from the attacks on America and more recently on my country. But you're looking in the wrong place. You’ve created this sort of phantom enemy, which is a disorganized network. When in fact what you're actually facing is an idea that springs up all over the place. You've created a notional enemy that’s driving you mad looking for it, when in fact, it’s something else entirely. And that's when I went back and tried to explain the ideas. I thought that was much more important for people to understand. Because when something that doesn’t exist becomes perceived wisdom, people tend to go slightly bonkers."

Whether you agree with it or not, it's a fascinating discussion between two brilliant documentary makers ranging across the Second World War, Cuba, Vietnam and Iraq. As Morris concludes,

History is like the weather. Themes do repeat themselves, but never in the same way.